To answer the question we need to define several terms-- Proved Reserves, Unproved reserves, and what I call UN-EXPLORED reserves. To begin this discussion first read these two Internet articles-- then come back here and we will talk about them.
http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/reprints/Reprint_171_WC.pdf
http://www.americansolutions.com/General/?Page=1c1a10c1-15fd-4ad8-a426-b9a87f635903
OK-- so what is a Proved Reserve--?
"an
estimated quantity of all hydrocarbons statistically defined as crude
oil or natural
gas, which geological and engineering data demonstrate
with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known
reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. Reservoirs
are considered proven if economic producibility is supported by either
actual production or conclusive formation testing. The area of an
oil reservoir considered proven includes those portions delineated
by drilling and defined by gas-oil or oil-water contacts, if any,
and the immediately adjoining portions not yet drilled, but which
can be reasonably judged as economically productive on the basis of
available geological and engineering data. In the absence of information
on fluid contacts, the lowest known structural occurrence of hydrocarbons
controls the lower proven limit of the reservoir. "
Then what is an UNPROVEN Reserves or Possible Reserves--?
"Probable reserves are either unsubstantiated claims or based
on median estimates of the accumulation that are more likely to be
recovered than not (50% confidence). This can result from either better
reservoir behaviour than expected under the proved category or
additional investments to be decided over the medium to long term
(three to ten years) using conventional techniques.[7] Industry specialists refer to this as P50 (i.e. having a 50% certainty of being produced). Proved plus probable reserves are known in the industry as 2P.[8]
Possible reserves ideally have a chance of being developed under favourable circumstances. [7] Industry specialists refer to this as P10 (i.e. having a 10% certainty of being produced). Proved plus probable plus possible reserves are known in the industry as 3P.[8]
Unproved reserves are used internally by oil companies and government agencies for future planning purposes." (Wiki definition)
When you hear politicians talking about our reserves they have a habit of talking ONLY about proved reserves (and maybe a little bit of unproven). Just remember this when you hear them on the radio or see them on TV.
Our potential reserves should include everything available inside and-or offshore USA -- much of which has never been properly explored (much less drilled). The "game-breaker"energy resources in the USA are coal and shale. We have an estimated 300 year supply of coal and an estimated TRILLION barrels of shale. Both of these resources should be explored to determine their ACTUAL potential impact on our Reserve. Unfortunately, coal is being demonized by the media, and shale exploration is currently OFF LIMITS-- as mandated by Congress. This is the tragic consequence of our current short sited political debate. We should immediately research and develop clean coal technologies including the production of oil and natural gas from coal; and the viability of extracting our shale formations economically. The simple answer to "how much of this stuff do we have?" --------- is --------- we don't really know!
Shell is currently building a shale extraction plant using new technology which is supposed to come on-line in 2012. From a 40ftx30ft test site they extracted 1700 barrels of oil and natural gas!--------- see their report Fact Sheet link below
http://www.shell.com/home/content/usa/aboutshell/shell_businesses/upstream/locations_projects/onshore/mahogany/dir_mahogany.html
http://www-static.shell.com/static/usa/downloads/about_shell/upstream/icp_factsheet.pdf Fact Sheet on the Shell Shale Test Site
However let's NOT forget about nuclear power. I continually hear about "we do not want to go nuclear because the reserves are running out". So here is a government chart showing our uranium reserves. The chart does NOT include processed uranium within our nuclear weapons cache!
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/reserves/ures.html
As you can see we have plenty --- if we would only use it! Here is a site with answers to many of the questions surrounding nuclear power generation--of course it is an AUSTRALIAN web site!
http://www.uic.com.au/faq.htm
and of course it is safer than PEANUT BUTTER!...and generates ZERO CO2!
http://www.everything2.com/e2node/Nuclear%2520Power%253A%2520Safer%2520than%2520Peanut%2520Butter
Think about this blog the next time you fill up the car or pay your electric bill.
Your comments concerning this blog are always welcomed.
Joe Lalumia
Rockwall, Texas
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